After looking like a sure loser just a week or two ago, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder bounced back to (potentially) victory in yesterday's German federal election. Most of the German press had written off Schröder and had anointed his Christian Democratic Union opponent, Angela Merkel, as the Chancellor-to-be. German voters, however, seem to have had misgivings about Merkel and, despite their dissatisfaction with Schröder's painful (but entirely necessary) economic reforms, seem to have decided that he was still the best alternative.
However, no one party earned a majority, and the usual coalition pairings of CDU/Free Dems or SPD/Greens also appear to have fallen short of a governing majority (results here). All this leaves Germany in a quandary: what will the next government look like? And perhaps just as importantly, who will have to break their campaign promises in order to form such a mixed government? Here is how the final tally broke it all down:
- 35.2% for Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the center-right party led by Angela Merkel.
- 34.3% for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the center-left party led by Gerhard Schröder.
- 9.8% for the Free Democrats, the pro-business right-wing party (traditionally the coalition partner of the CDU).
- 8.7% for the Left Party (Linkspartei), the new left party, made up of disaffected SPD members and former communists.
- 8.1% for the Greens, the progressive left-wing party (traditionally the coalition partner of the SPD).
So what are the possibilities for coalitions? At least according to campaign promises, the possibilities are sparse. For instance, both the SPD and the CDU have sworn off any possible alliance with the Left Party. For Schröder and the SPD this makes sense since the Left Party is made up of former SPD members who have fought tooth and nail against the economic reforms and cuts in the welfare state that are necessary for Germany to stay competitive in a globalized world economy. For this same reason, it would be impossible for the CDU to ever work effectively with the Left Party. So this limits the options tremendously right off the bat.
Then there is the possibility of the SPD/Green combo luring the Free Democrats away from the CDU. This too would be awkward, but not quite as badly. Schröder's necessary economic reform platform could use a burst of energy from the pro-business wing of German politics, though the SPD may be punished for such an arrangement in future elections.
A CDU-led coalition with the Free Democrats in addition to the Greens also seems untenable. The Greens would not be too happy in such a government and would quickly find their ideals compromised by the realities of government. Especially after holding a prized position in the previous government, when it's leader Joschka Fischer was Foreign Minister, a CDU-led government would be difficult to swallow.
Which leaves us with the most likely combination: a "grand coalition" between the SPD and the CDU. This, however, runs into the biggest obstacle of them all: pride. While Merkel has already suggested such an arrangement after realizing that she squandered her incredible poll lead of just a few weeks and even days ago, Schröder is having none of it. He has said that he will only allow for such a "grand coalition" if he can remain Chancellor. That makes sense from a personal perspective: the prospect of a demotion to Foreign Minister in a "grand coalition" after being Chancellor would probably encourage one to seek early retirement as a face-saving move. Considering that Schröder was probably going to retire anyway when polls were putting his SPD a good 10-15% behind Merkel's CDU, this might still turn out to be the best option. However, with an impressive come-from-behind tie in the closing days of the campaign, Schröder is riding high and has reason to believe that the people would prefer his continued leadership.
So what should be done? Traditionally the leader of the party with the most votes is selected as Chancellor. That would suggest that Merkel should become Germany's first female head of government. I wouldn't count on that though. Either watch for Merkel to accept Schröder's demand for the Chancellorship and herself be booted out of CDU's leadership for giving up victory, or prepare for the fireworks that come with unusual coalition governments. However it happens, don't expect it to last very long. Such toxic mixes in government usually don't last long.
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