I wandered over to Arts & Letters Daily and found this great article about the apparent myth perpetrated by the Bush administration that China is in the process of building up its non-conventional weaponry. It simply isn't true. In fact, it appears that China holds one of, if not the smallest nuclear arsenals of any nuclear power. Their missile programs, in this area at least, have not changed in the past few decades according to American intelligence sources.
Chinese nuclear forces today look remarkably like they have for decades. The picture of the Chinese nuclear arsenal that emerges from U.S. intelligence assessments suggests a country that--at least in the nuclear field--is deploying a smaller, less ready arsenal than is within its capabilities. That reflects a choice to rely on a minimum deterrent that sacrifices offensive capability in exchange for maximizing political control and minimizing economic cost--a decision that seems eminently sensible. The great mystery is not that Beijing chose such an arsenal, but that the Bush administration would be eager to change it.
The political issue here is that a number of Congressional Republicans just don't want to believe that China isn't on the move in this respect. It's like they want a nuclear arms race with China so they can justify the gigantic waste of money known as the missile defense "shield."
The true scope of China's nuclear capabilities are hidden in plain sight, among the myriad declassified assessments produced by the U.S. intelligence community. Yet, such analyses have run afoul of conservative legislators, who express dismay when threat assessments don't conform to their perceptions of reality. Congressional Republicans, for instance, in 2000 created the China Futures Panel, chaired by former Gen. John Tilelli, to examine charges of bias in the CIA assessments of China. In 2002, Bob Schaffer, a Republican congressman from Colorado, complained about the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of foreign ballistic missile development in a letter to CIA director George Tenet: "The lack of attention to the pronounced and growing danger caused by China's ballistic missile buildup, and its aggressive strategy for using its ballistic missiles cannot go unchallenged. The report is misleading, and, because it understates the magnitude of threat, is profoundly dangerous."
Yet another case of reality and fiction colliding and Republicans choosing the fiction and running with it.
POSTSCRIPT: This article speculates that China has "only" 200-400 nuclear warheads. The fact that that is considered a small amount is not what surprises me since I'm well aware that the United States has many, many times that amount. My question is, practically, how many could ever be used, even in a full-blown nuclear holocaust? At some point beyond, oh, I don't know, 200-400, it would seem like you'd run out of targets. Now, I'm not one to suggest that the United States should cut back on its arsenal, but it seems like China is playing its cards pretty smartly here: they are avoiding a costly nuclear arms race with the United States and are keeping a minimum arsenal. Or should I say, the maximum practical arsenal?
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